Northeast Valley Real Estate Insights – January 2025

January is the time of year when real estate folks either dust off their crystal ball, throw it away or order a new one.

Before we look ahead, let’s take a peek back at where we just came from. We had an election; we were worried about inflation; mortgage interest rates were relatively high; the direction of our economy was uncertain; investors were confused.

Welcome to 2025. The election happened, Whether or not you like the outcome, it does give us a degree of certainty. People like certainty; markets like certainty; it leads to confidence, and confidence drives our economy.

We’ve been discussing for two years now whether a recession is going to happen. It seems more unlikely. The Fed is not as concerned about inflation anymore. Mortgage interest rates have come down but continue to gyrate above 6.5%.

So what does this all mean for real estate? Is now a good time to sell? Or to buy? What will happen with the value of my house this year?

These are all valid questions. Each month I will share data, insights and opinions with you. Let’s start with these:

In the 5 ZIP Codes that make up the Scottsdale/Northeast Valley area (85255, 85262, 85266, 85331, 85377) at the time I am writing this there are currently 1,089 homes for sale. This has been trending upward since August when there were 851.  Expect this number to continue climbing as we are now in our prime selling season of January through May.

Also expect demand to increase during this same time period. Many analysts agree that demand will rise even more if mortgage interest rates drop below 6.5%.

Most cities and towns in the valley are currently considered to be “balanced” which favors neither the buyer nor seller. But it varies by town and ZIP Code. For example: the Scottsdale ZIPs of 85255, 85262 and 85266 slightly favor the Buyer right now based on the number of active listings. But buyer’s markets don’t last very long. Carefree and Cave Creek slightly favor the seller.

I subscribe to the Cromford ® Report which is the leading local authority on the residential real estate market. I can dive pretty deep into their data such as Days on Market, Monthly Supply, Sold vs. List Price, Contract Ratios and more. Please reach out if you’d like more detail about your ZIP Code or town.

Darrell Doepke is a full-time, RealTrends Verified Top 1% Realtor® in Arizona (2024), specializing in Carefree, Cave Creek, and North Scottsdale luxury homes. With a background in marketing and journalism, Darrell tells each home’s story to grab buyers emotionally. His narrated property videos showcase this strategy, and he invests more in marketing than most agents. He lives by his motto: “I don’t wait for buyers — I pursue them.” Darrell is VP of Community Partners and founder of Community Fest, an October event supporting local nonprofits. He is known for his SRES® designation assisting seniors; his Midwest values, and community leadership. Clients often say he’s the best Realtor® they’ve worked with.