Northeast Valley Real Estate Insights – May 2025

“Tariff. That’s a big word. Can you say tariff? I know you can.”

In real estate, what’s happening in Mr. Rogers’ neighborhood is the same thing happening in yours. Words that come to mind are uncertainty, volatility, disruption, turmoil, irrationality.

Those are all big words, too. How is this tariff and stock market craziness baffling and befuddling home buyers and sellers in the northeast valley?

Are there still folks who need to sell their home now? Of course. And others who need to buy now? Certainly. Real estate agents might need to work a little harder to get deals done. But that’s OK; that’s our job. I’m still making things happen for my clients.

It’s the discretionary buyers who are nervous to engage for the moment.

In North Scottsdale, Carefree and Cave Creek there are a significant number of buyers who are retirees, high net worth individuals and investors. If their portfolios are taking a hit, they may hold off on purchases until more stability returns. The luxury market is particularly sensitive to stock market swings, since many luxury buyers fund their real estate purchases through investments or liquid assets.

If tariff issues stay unresolved in the near term, we may see some cooling in buyer enthusiasm. Homes might sit on the market longer, and the price per square foot could dip. Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst for The Cromford Report, is forecasting a year-over-year decline of 3.6% in monthly sales price per square foot.

And as we have witnessed several times recently, all of that can change in a Washington DC minute!

These actions and reactions are nothing we haven’t seen before. There are common patterns when we look back to the big stock market correction of late 2018; the first few months of COVID in 2020; and the inflation and rate hikes of 2022:

When the stock market tanks, luxury sales slow and buyers wait.

When mortgage interest rates are volatile, buyer psychology shifts quickly.

When economic uncertainty leads to recession fears, sellers become more flexible in their pricing.

The longer term outlook in our area still remains positive, due to continued demand and local economic health. There are still a lot of people who need or want to live here.

For now, let’s hope for some more clarity soon.

Darrell Doepke is a full-time, RealTrends Verified Top 1% Realtor® in Arizona (2024), specializing in Carefree, Cave Creek, and North Scottsdale luxury homes. With a background in marketing and journalism, Darrell tells each home’s story to grab buyers emotionally. His narrated property videos showcase this strategy, and he invests more in marketing than most agents. He lives by his motto: “I don’t wait for buyers — I pursue them.” Darrell is VP of Community Partners and founder of Community Fest, an October event supporting local nonprofits. He is known for his SRES® designation assisting seniors; his Midwest values, and community leadership. Clients often say he’s the best Realtor® they’ve worked with.